Stakepool - no loss, staking based XTZ price prediction

Stakepool lets you predict the Tezos price range for the duration of the staking cycle period and if by the end of the staking period (5 and 7 cycles for carthagenet and mainnet respectively), Tezos price falls in the range predicted by you, all the baking rewards accrued in the contract are distributed among the users who predicted the right price range.

The project started as a weekend activity idea and at a very early stage. I would like to get feedback about the idea and possible challenges in implementation.

Here’s the notion link:

7 Likes

So I gave the Notion link a read through and I like the idea behind the project. It looks like some sort of prediction market. I did have a couple of questions though.

  1. Is there a maximum amount of XTZ that an individual is allowed to bet? If so, why? If the “bet” is really just a time-locked delegation, wouldn’t it make more sense to allow larger bets to increase the available reward pool and attract more participants?

  2. If there is a maximum bet, what prevents someone from making the maximum bet with multiple addresses, thus bypassing the maximum bet?

  3. Do you think that this sort of price prediction market will be useful for any defi options markets that develop on Tezos related to XTZ price in the future?

  4. I think that in the event that no user successfully bets on the correct price range, the reward pool should retain the rewards, minus the platform fee. This way the game incentivizes more entrants in the next cycle.

You don’t need to do this in a way that trusts the baker.

You can have a baker create a contract where participants can place in some amount of tez and, once the baker pay some contractual fraction of the pool into the pool, the pool is locked for a cycle, and the payout happens using harbinger.

2 Likes

To answer 1 and 2, No there’s no limit on maximum bets.

3, Yes this kind of project-specific to price discovery could be helpful for any options markets which can probably help identify the price sentiment. The idea came when I was looking into options.

  1. A good point, that may make the returns higher, and increases the participation.
1 Like

That’s right, maybe I should have specified better in the doc, looks unclear. In the current architecture, it’s supposed to be like that. The only reliance regarding the baker is that the baker pays out to the contract, considering as a single delegator. Then the contract distributes the rewards to all betters itself when the oracle says the cycle is completed.

Correct me if I am wrong here in interpreting the suggestion.

You don’t actually need to rely on the baker paying out to the contract by making the baker pay upfront.

1 Like

Ahh okay got it. That’s a good idea.

Nice, good to know there’s no bet limit, and that you’re considering having the un-won bets get rolled into the next betting period.

I would really like to see some sort of options contract launch on top of your stakepool betting protocol. Hope that’s something you’re looking into. Awesome idea!

Is there any way to change which Baker is being delegated to? Or for participants to signal which Baker they’d prefer?

Any idea when the contracts will launch?